Unresolved Questions and Risks: The Uncertain Fate of Syria’s Chemical Weapons
Syria's chemical weapons stockpiles remain a subject of intense scrutiny and concern more than a decade after their partial disclosure and destruction. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has been at the forefront of efforts to address the issue, but significant gaps in Syria's declarations and ongoing conflict in the region have left the matter dangerously unresolved. Recent developments, including the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad by Islamist rebels, have further complicated the situation, raising alarms about the potential misuse of these weapons.
A Troubled History: From Ghouta to OPCW Investigations
The turning point in international focus on Syria's chemical weapons came in 2013, following a devastating attack in East Ghouta that killed over 1,000 people. The incident crossed the "red line" set by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and led to diplomatic pressure on Damascus to join the OPCW. In response, Syria declared 1,300 metric tonnes of chemical agents, which were subsequently destroyed under international supervision.
However, the OPCW has consistently questioned the completeness of this declaration. According to Fernando Arias, the OPCW's director-general, there remain "large quantities of potentially undeclared or unverified chemical warfare agents and chemical munitions" in Syria. To date, the OPCW has raised 26 unresolved issues with Syria's chemical weapons dossier.
Ongoing Use and Attribution
Despite assurances of disarmament, evidence has emerged of continued chemical weapons use in Syria. Investigations by the OPCW have confirmed at least 20 instances where chemical weapons were used or likely used, including attacks involving chlorine, sarin, and mustard agents.
Key incidents include the Syrian air force's deployment of sarin and chlorine in Lataminah in 2017 and a chlorine attack on Saraqib in 2018. In Douma, another chlorine attack in 2018 killed 43 people. The OPCW's Investigation and Identification Team (IIT) attributed these attacks to the Syrian government. Additionally, the Islamic State group was found responsible for a chemical attack using mustard gas in Marea in 2015.
Current Risks and Geopolitical Implications
With the fall of the Assad regime to Islamist rebels such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the risk of chemical weapons falling into extremist hands has escalated. The OPCW and world powers are scrambling to secure these stockpiles. The United States has expressed confidence in its ability to monitor the location of these materials, while Israel has reportedly conducted airstrikes targeting remaining stockpiles to prevent their misuse.
HTS, now in control of parts of Syria, has publicly denied intentions to use chemical weapons. However, experts like Lennie Phillips of the Royal United Services Institute warn that external intervention is necessary to safely destroy or remove these weapons.
What Lies Ahead?
The future of Syria's chemical weapons program remains uncertain. The OPCW continues to urge Syrian authorities to cooperate fully, while international actors assess strategies to neutralize remaining threats. The enduring legacy of these weapons underscores the global challenge of enforcing disarmament in war-torn regions, where political instability and extremist groups amplify the risks.
