Russia’s October Gains 478 Sq Km in Ukraine Mark Largest Advance Since 2022: New Analysis

In October 2024, the Russian military achieved its most significant monthly advancement in Ukraine since the conflict's early days in March 2022. According to data from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), analyzed by AFP, Russian forces captured 478 square kilometers (184.5 square miles) of Ukrainian territory over the month. This expansion in Ukraine’s eastern regions, particularly around Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the Ukrainian forces as they grapple with increasingly fortified Russian troops.

The October figures reveal an uptick in territorial gains compared to the preceding months. In August and September 2024, Russian advances measured 477 and 459 square kilometers, respectively, but October saw a new high. The eastern region of Donetsk accounted for nearly two-thirds of these recent advances, with Russian troops closing in on Pokrovsk from the south and east. Their progress in Donetsk aligns with their broader strategic objectives in eastern Ukraine, where control over critical cities like Pokrovsk would further secure Russia’s hold on the Donbas industrial region.

In addition to eastern Ukraine, Russian forces also made strides in the north near Kupiansk, a town with a recent history of strategic exchanges. Initially seized by Russian troops in the early phases of the war, Kupiansk was recaptured by Ukrainian forces in a September 2022 counteroffensive. However, in October 2024, Russian advances in this region included the capture of more than 40 square kilometers (15.4 square miles), once again underscoring the dynamic nature of the frontlines.

The cumulative data underscores Russia’s gradual but steady territorial consolidation since the beginning of 2024. Although only 584 square kilometers were captured throughout 2023, Russian forces have already taken more than 2,660 square kilometers (1,027 square miles) this year, an area slightly larger than Moscow itself. As of October 27, 2024, Russia’s total territorial control in Ukraine—alongside the Crimean Peninsula and regions under Moscow-backed separatist control—amounts to approximately 18.2 percent of Ukraine’s pre-2014 boundaries.

Russia’s recent advances underscore the challenges faced by the Ukrainian forces. Eastern Ukraine’s terrain and the infrastructure devastation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions complicate Ukraine’s defense strategy. With many Russian troops and resources concentrated in these areas, Kyiv’s forces are confronting an opponent that has built up defenses and maintains significant firepower and manpower advantages in the contested zones. 

The current frontline is notably more rigid than during the conflict's initial months. While early 2022 saw fluid battles and rapid shifts as Russian troops moved toward Kyiv, the situation today resembles a grinding stalemate with gradual Russian advances in specific, strategically valuable regions. 

In recent months, Russian forces have shown renewed momentum in their offensive operations. The data used by AFP and ISW relies on information provided by both Ukrainian and Russian sources and is validated through satellite imagery. This analytical method enables a clearer view of the evolving battlefield, even as information from the ground becomes increasingly challenging to verify due to heightened operational security.

As winter approaches, the strategic implications of Russia’s October gains could affect the war's trajectory, making it harder for Ukraine to regain lost territories in the eastern regions. The progress recorded this month is a reminder that, even two years into the conflict, the situation remains unpredictable, with both sides continuing to adapt their strategies on a rapidly evolving battlefield.