Russia Mystery Naval Base In Abkhazia Sends Shockwaves; Georgia Says No Secret Talks With Moscow

Defense News - The establishment of a Russian naval base in the breakaway region of Abkhazia in Georgia, along the Black Sea, introduces a new layer of complexity to the already tense situation in the region amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In the midst of frequent clashes involving Ukrainian drones, Russia Black Sea Fleet warships, and missile strikes on the naval base in Sevastopol, the construction of the base in Ochamchire emerges as a focal point in the broader Great Power rivalry unfolding in the Caucasus.

Abkhazia, officially recognized as part of Georgia but under the control of Russia-aligned separatist forces since the 1990s, has historical significance. The base genesis traces back to 2009, a year after the Russia-Georgia war over South Ossetia, when Russia unveiled its plans for the Ochamchire base.

The development of the Ochamchire base, evident in satellite images revealing ongoing construction, is rooted in two key elements of regional geopolitics. First is Georgia concern about the base potentially being used to target Ukraine, making it a legitimate target for counterattacks. Second is the suspicion that the base represents a strategic move against the Western-backed Anaklia Project, part of the Middle Corridor aimed at facilitating cargo transportation between Asia and Europe, bypassing Russia.

Georgian political figures expressed their outrage over the violation of their sovereignty in a deal signed between the separatist Abkhazia administration and the Russian government in September. In early November, 50 Georgian Members of Parliament appealed to the European Union and NATO for a unified stance against Russia, fearing that the base could entangle Georgia in Russia war in Ukraine and undermine Tbilisi Black Sea port plans.

Despite the condemnation and concerns, Georgia diplomatic and security officials downplay the immediate threat posed by the base. They emphasize that even if construction begins, it will take at least three years to complete. The base is situated 500 kilometers south of Novorossiysk along the Black Sea coast.

Abkhazia de facto leader, Aslan Bzhania, confirmed the agreement with Russia on the permanent naval base, framing it as essential for defense and security. While Georgia was granted EU "candidate status," the intentions behind Russia establishment of the base remain uncertain—whether geo-economic and commercial or military in nature.

Given Russia strong response to Ukraine NATO aspirations, deterring further NATO expansion eastwards, talks of Georgia joining the Membership Action Plan (MAP) seem unlikely. The Ochamchire base could serve as a strategic point for Russia on the Black Sea coast, enhancing defense capabilities for both Russia and Abkhazia.

The geopolitical implications are intricate, with Russia aiming to deter anti-Russian sentiments within Georgia and prevent opposition to normalized ties with Abkhazia. The ruling Dream Party of Georgia, with a majority in Parliament, has refrained from supporting resolutions against the Ochamchire base, dismissing them as provocative and politically motivated.