Pakistan's Nuclear Modernisation Amidst Economic Turmoil and Regional Tensions: Insights from US Intelligence
In a recent congressional hearing on China, Lt Gen Jeffrey Kruse, Director of the Defence Intelligence Agency, highlighted Pakistan's steadfast nuclear modernisation efforts despite economic turmoil. Kruse emphasized that Pakistan's defence policy continues to be significantly influenced by its contentious relationship with India, a sentiment echoed by top American lawmakers.
Despite facing economic challenges, Pakistan has prioritized its nuclear modernisation efforts, as underscored by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's report indicating its possession of 170 nuclear warheads as of January 2023. Kruse emphasized that Pakistan's nuclear ambitions persist alongside its ongoing efforts to seek international support, including from the UN Security Council, to address the Kashmir dispute with India.
Kruse further noted that while Pakistan has experienced an increase in terrorist violence against its security forces and civilians, cross-border violence between India and Pakistan has decreased since both countries reaffirmed a ceasefire agreement in February 2021. This decrease in cross-border violence has been accompanied by Pakistan's ongoing efforts to modernize its nuclear arsenal and enhance the security of its nuclear materials and command and control systems.
Highlighting specific developments, Kruse mentioned Pakistan's successful test of its Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile in October. Additionally, he reported that Pakistani security forces have been engaged in nearly daily counterterrorism operations in response to heightened militant activity, with approximately 400 security forces killed in 2023, marking a nine-year high.
The strained relations between Islamabad and New Delhi stem primarily from the Kashmir issue and cross-border terrorism originating from Pakistan. Pakistan's decision to downgrade diplomatic ties with India in 2019 following India's revocation of Article 370 further exacerbated tensions between the two countries.
In contrast, India maintains its stance of seeking normal neighborly relations with Pakistan while emphasizing Islamabad's responsibility to create an environment free from terrorism and hostility for meaningful engagement. India asserts that its constitutional measures in Jammu and Kashmir are internal matters aimed at fostering socio-economic development and good governance within its territory.
Against this backdrop, Pakistan's nuclear modernisation efforts persist amidst economic challenges and regional tensions, underscoring the complex dynamics shaping South Asian security. As Pakistan navigates these challenges, its interactions with international partners, including close allies like China and Saudi Arabia, as well as engagements with multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, will continue to play a crucial role in shaping its security and economic trajectory.