Pakistan Getting Chinese Stealth Aircraft Triggers Race for Modern Air Forces with India

Defense News ,Pakistan :- Pakistan's recent announcement regarding its intention to procure Chinese fifth-generation FC-31 Gyrfalcon stealth fighter aircraft has set off alarms in India, prompting analysts to suggest an acceleration in India's air force modernization efforts. Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber's revelation of Pakistan's plans has raised concerns in India about maintaining tactical air superiority along its borders. Analysts speculate that Pakistan may receive up to 36 FC-31 jets by the end of the decade, posing a significant challenge to India's defense strategy.

Mustafa Hyder, from the Pakistan-China Institute, views this move as a demonstration of the deepening military cooperation between Pakistan and China, aimed at countering their common adversary, India. The potential acquisition of the FC-31 Gyrfalcon underscores the joint strategy of both countries to address security threats emanating from India.

In response, India is facing pressure to expedite its acquisition of American F-35 aircraft or accelerate its Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft program to develop its own stealth combat aircraft by 2032. Harsh V. Pant, a professor at King's College London, suggests that the deal between Pakistan and China compels India to reassess its defense procurement strategies to maintain its competitive edge in the region.

The FC-31 Gyrfalcon, also known as J-31 or J-35, signifies China's advancement in stealth technology. While the official designation is pending, prototypes are being developed by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, with expectations of deployment in the Chinese navy within the next five years. This development adds complexity to the regional military balance, particularly in light of India's ongoing conflicts with both China and Pakistan over disputed borders.

The potential deployment of a fifth-generation stealth fighter by Pakistan presents a formidable challenge for India, given its absence in the current Indian Air Force arsenal. This acquisition would afford Pakistan a tactical advantage, particularly in air-to-air combat scenarios, according to Frank O'Donnell, a senior research adviser. Moreover, Pakistan's close military ties with China facilitate a more streamlined procurement process compared to India's bureaucratic challenges.

For India to effectively counter these developments, it must address longstanding issues such as declining squadron strength and delays in the acquisition of foreign and domestic warplanes. Overcoming these challenges is crucial to ensuring India's ability to keep pace with regional adversaries and maintain its strategic interests in South Asia.

Despite the addition of 36 Rafale 4.5-generation warplanes from France's Dassault Aviation in the past two years, India's Air Force (IAF) finds itself grappling with a modernization gap, leaving it with 30 to 32 squadrons against the intended strength of 42. Analysts note that the ageing out of the existing fleet has outpaced the IAF's progress in acquiring new aircraft. The shortfall in warplane numbers, crucial for countering threats from China and Pakistan, amounts to approximately 200 aircraft, a gap projected to be only halved by the mid-2030s.

India is on the verge of announcing the acquisition of an additional 26 Rafale planes, expected to be deployed on its aircraft carrier. However, addressing this shortage requires a significant political commitment to streamline the defense acquisition process and overcome bureaucratic hurdles, a commitment that has not been adequately demonstrated so far.

In response to India's Rafale acquisitions, Pakistan has ordered 25 Chengdu J-10C "Vigorous Dragon" aircraft, emphasizing the escalating regional competition. This move is seen as part of a broader strategy by China to counter India's growing political and defense partnerships with the United States. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, including Japan and Australia, has bolstered India's position as a counterweight to China in Asia, departing from its traditional non-aligned foreign policy.

Despite Pakistan's forthcoming acquisition of Chinese stealth warplanes, specifically the FC-31 Gyrfalcon, India appears less alarmed, considering the aircraft is still in the developmental stage. Analysts, including Harsh V. Pant of King's College London, suggest that this deal may benefit China more than Pakistan in the long term, given the lag in the FC-31's development.

India's necessity to address its aging fleet led to the Rafale acquisitions, while Pakistan, realizing challenges in its long-term relationship with the U.S., sought advanced Chinese fighter aircraft. The China-Pakistan military relationship has strengthened through joint production projects like the JF-17 "Thunder" fighters, guided-missile frigates, and diesel-electric submarines. The potential J-31 deal further indicates the enduring nature of the China-Pakistan military alliance, with the U.S. likely unsurprised by this development.