Iran Nearing Capability to Develop Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, After Satellite Launch

Defense News ,Iran :- Recent analysis of Iran's satellite launch indicates the country is rapidly approaching the capability to deploy intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), as outlined by Tal Inbar, a senior Israeli defense analyst. The successful launch of the 'Suraya' spy satellite on January 20 has raised concerns about Iran's potential to develop ICBMs capable of reaching the United States, carrying warheads weighing hundreds of kilograms.

The satellite, weighing approximately 50 kg, was placed into a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) with a perigee of 750 km and an inclination of 64.51°. Inbar's analysis focuses on the launcher's rear-stabilized small fins, which enhance static stability during the first stage boost and potentially contribute to roll control.

Based on available open-source information, Inbar suggests that the three-stage QAEM-100 launcher used in the satellite launch could serve as a prototype for an Iranian ICBM. The QAEM-100 is launched from a mobile launcher known as a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL), and its compact three-stage configuration raises concerns about its potential military applications.

Inbar acknowledges that transforming the QAEM-100 into a functional ICBM would require additional modifications, including the development of an operational Reentry Vehicle (RV) and a small fourth stage for precise energy maneuvering, relying on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data and/or a star tracker.

Despite the absence of detailed dimensions or weight breakdown, Inbar emphasizes the significance of Iran's claim to have achieved a 750 km orbit with a 50 kg (option for 80 kg) satellite. He suggests that if this was accomplished through a direct ascent method, it could support assessments that a similar missile might carry an RV weighing about half a ton to intercontinental ranges.

The analysis raises concerns about Iran's evolving capabilities in the realm of ballistic missiles and underscores the importance of closely monitoring developments in its space program. The potential advancement towards ICBM capability heightens geopolitical tensions and necessitates continued scrutiny from the international community.