India , China 

China's launch of its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, has sent ripples through the Indo-Pacific. While India boasts two carriers itself, the question arises: can India effectively counter China's growing naval power with its existing weaponry?

Carrier Comparison: A Numbers Game

On paper, China's carriers hold a clear advantage. The Fujian is a technologically advanced behemoth, displacing over 80,000 tons and likely carrying more aircraft than India's Vikrant and Vikramaditya (both around 45,000 tons). However, military might isn't just about size

First Biggest Question:

How China's Aircraft Carrier Group Entered the Indian Ocean ?

There are several possible routes an aircraft carrier group from China could take to enter the Indian Ocean, depending on their starting point and destination. Here are two main options:

• East China Sea - South China Sea - Malacca Strait - Andaman Sea:  This is the most likely route, as it is the shortest and most direct way from China's southeastern coast to the Indian Ocean. However, it also takes the carrier group through a strategically important chokepoint, the Strait of Malacca, which is controlled by several countries, including Malaysia and Singapore.

• East China Sea - Pacific Ocean - Sunda Strait - Indian Ocean: This route bypasses the Malacca Strait but is slightly longer. The Sunda Strait, between Sumatra and Java in Indonesia, is another chokepoint but less congested than Malacca.Other factors that could influence the route choice include:

• South China Sea - Karimata Strait - Indian Ocean: This route avoids both the Malacca and Sunda straits but adds significant distance.  The Karimata Strait is south of Borneo and less restricted

If China's Aircraft Carrier Group Enter the Indian Ocean Through Malacca Strait.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands do pose a strategic challenge for a Chinese aircraft carrier group entering the Indian Ocean via the Malacca Strait here's how:

Geographical Advantage:

• Location: The Andaman and Nicobar Islands sits right at the entrance to the Malacca Strait, effectively creating a chokepoint. This allows India to potentially monitor and restrict the movement of the carrier group.

• Island chain: The islands themselves can be used as forward bases for Indian military assets.

Military Capabilities:

• Anti-access/Area Denial (A2/AD) Weapons: India can deploy these on the islands to make it difficult for the carrier group to operate freely. This could include missile systems, submarines, and maritime patrol aircraft.

• Airbases: India has airbases in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands that could be used to launch fighter jets and bombers to threaten the carrier group.

Impact on China:

• Lengthened Routes: If China feels the Malacca Strait is too risky due to the Indian presence, they are forced to take longer routes through the Sunda Strait or Karimata Strait, delaying their arrival and strategic goals.

• Resource Drain: China may need to dedicate additional resources to defend the carrier group against potential Indian threats.

If China's Aircraft Carrier Group Successfully Entered the Indian Ocean Through Other Option.

India's Asymmetric Response With Navy Battle Carrier Group.

1. Su-30 MKI With Brahmos

The combination of multiple Su-30 MKI fighter jets armed with BrahMos missiles poses a significant threat to China's new aircraft carrier group in the Indian Ocean, for several reasons:

BrahMos's Reach and Power:

• Long-range Supersonic Threat: BrahMos missiles are hypersonic (Mach 5+) or supersonic (Mach 3+) cruise missiles, making them extremely difficult to intercept by a carrier's air defense systems. Their extended range (potentially exceeding 800 km) allows Su-30 MKIs to launch attacks from well outside the effective range of the carrier's defenses.

• Devastating Impact: The BrahMos missile carries a large warhead, capable of inflicting significant damage on an aircraft carrier if it lands a successful hit.

Su-30 MKI's Advantages:

• Multirole Flexibility: Su-30 MKIs are capable long-range fighters. They can fly long distances to reach the operational area and carry multiple BrahMos missiles for a concentrated attack.

• Large Numbers: India possesses a sizable fleet of Su-30 MKI fighters, allowing for a coordinated multi-aircraft strike, overwhelming the carrier's defenses.

Exploiting Carrier Vulnerabilities:

• Limited Air Defense: Aircraft carriers, despite having advanced defensive systems, have a limited defensive radius. A well-coordinated missile attack from multiple Sukhoi-30s, potentially launched from different directions, could overwhelm the carrier's defenses.

• Carrier Group's Reliance on Support Ships: Aircraft carrier groups rely on a number of support ships for operations. Taking out these support vessels with BrahMos missiles can significantly cripple the carrier's effectiveness.

However, it's important to consider some balancing factors:

• China's Carrier Defenses: China's new carrier group will likely possess advanced anti-missile systems that can potentially counter the BrahMos threat.

• Air Superiority: For a successful attack, the Indian Air Force would need to establish air superiority to prevent Chinese fighter jets from intercepting the Su-30s before they launch their missiles.

Overall, multiple Su-30 MKIs with BrahMos missiles pose a credible threat to China's new aircraft carrier. However, the effectiveness of this strategy would depend on India's ability to overwhelm Chinese defenses and establish air superiority in the region.

2. Agni Prime Missile with MIRV Technology

India's recent development of the Agni Prime missile, a smaller, more mobile version of the Agni series with a reported 1500 km range and MIRV (Multiple Independently Re-entry Vehicle) capability, adds another layer of deterrence against China's growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean. Here's how:

Strategic Reach from Island Chain:

• Andaman and Nicobar Islands: By deploying Agni Prime to India's strategically located Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the missile effectively extends India's reach into a large part of the Indian Ocean.

• China's Carrier Vulnerability: If a Chinese carrier group enters the Indian Ocean, it would likely come within striking distance of Agni Prime missiles launched from the Andamans.

MIRV Technology for Added Threat:

• Multiple Warheads: The MIRV technology allows a single Agni Prime missile to carry and deploy multiple independently targeted warheads. This significantly increases the chance of inflicting critical damage on a large target like an aircraft carrier.

• Overwhelming Defenses: MIRV missiles can overwhelm a carrier's defenses by forcing them to engage multiple incoming threats simultaneously.

Limitations and Considerations:

• Limited Range: While 1500 km is a significant range, it doesn't cover the entirety of the Indian Ocean. China might operate its carrier group beyond Agni Prime's reach.

• Accuracy and Survivability: The effectiveness of Agni Prime would depend on its accuracy and the survivability of its launch platforms against potential Chinese attacks.

3. Nuclear submarine

China's launch of the Fujian aircraft carrier has cast a strategic spotlight on the Indian Navy's capabilities. While an aircraft carrier itself might be a deterrent, India's nuclear submarines offer a different kind of threat – a silent and potentially devastating one.

The Submarine Advantage:

• Covert Operations: Nuclear submarines operate underwater, remaining undetected for extended periods. This allows them to position themselves strategically for a surprise attack on the Chinese carrier group.

• Anti-Ship Missile Threat: Indian nuclear submarines like the Arihant class are armed with powerful anti-ship missiles. A well-placed torpedo or missile launch from a submerged submarine could cripple or even sink a large carrier.

• Disrupting Carrier Operations: The mere presence of undetected submarines can force a carrier group to alter its course and maneuver defensively, hindering its operational effectiveness.

Challenges and Considerations:

• Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW): China undoubtedly possesses advanced ASW capabilities. The success of an Indian submarine attack hinges on its ability to evade detection.

• Limited Numbers: India's current fleet of nuclear submarines is relatively small compared to China's. This limits the number of submarines that can be deployed for a coordinated attack.

4. India's SMART Torpedo - A Silent Threat to China's Carrier Dreams.

China's new Fujian aircraft carrier might be a formidable force, but India's recently tested Supersonic Missile-Assisted Release of Torpedo (SMART) system throws a wrench into the equation. India's SMART system presents a potential game-changer in the Indian Ocean Here's why:

Bypassing Carrier Defenses:

• Underwater Assassins: Unlike conventional aircraft or ship-launched torpedoes, SMART utilizes a high-speed missile to deliver a lightweight torpedo at extended ranges. This allows the torpedo to bypass a carrier's air defense entirely, striking from unexpected depths.

• Long-Range Surprise: SMART's extended range, reportedly exceeding that of conventional torpedoes by a significant margin, keeps Indian launch platforms well outside the carrier group's defensive zone. This makes pinpointing the launch origin and deploying countermeasures difficult.

Exploiting Carrier Vulnerabilities:

• Submarine Threat: Aircraft carriers are notoriously vulnerable to underwater attacks. A successful SMART torpedo strike has the potential to inflict crippling damage or even sink a carrier.

• Carrier Group Disruption: The threat of underwater attacks can force a carrier group to alter its movements and deploy additional anti-submarine warfare (ASW) resources, hindering its overall operational effectiveness.

Challenges and Considerations:

• System Immaturity: SMART is a relatively new system, and its operational effectiveness and reliability remain to be fully proven.

• Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW): The success of a SMART attack depends on India's submarines evading detection by China's advanced ASW capabilities..

If Any Case ,China's Aircraft Carrier Group Fighter Aircraft Successfully Reach Near India, the Biggest Challenge Would Be India's Long-Range Air Defense Systems .

Multi-Layered long Range Air Defense Systems:

India's multi-layered air defense system, including Long-Range Air Defense Systems (LRADs), poses a significant challenge for Chinese aircraft carrier group (CVBG) fighter jets operating near Indian territory in the Indian Ocean. Here's how this layered defense works:

Multi-Layered Defense:

• LRADs (Outer Layer): As mentioned earlier, LRADs form the outer layer, engaging enemy aircraft at long distances with powerful missiles. This forces CVBG fighters to operate farther out, reducing their range and effectiveness.

• Medium-Range Air Defense Systems (Mid Layer): Once enemy aircraft breach the LRAD range, medium-range air defense systems take over. These systems, deployed on land or ships, can engage targets at shorter distances with missiles and anti-aircraft guns.

• Short-Range Air Defense Systems (Inner Layer): The innermost layer comprises short-range air defense systems like close-in weapon systems (CIWS) deployed on warships and coastal defense units. These engage aerial threats at very close range, providing final protection.

• Fighter Jets (Interception Layer): Throughout these layers, India's fighter jets act as a crucial mobile defense. They can be scrambled to intercept enemy aircraft that penetrate deeper and engage them in aerial combat.

Combined Threat:

This multi-layered approach makes it difficult for CVBG fighters to overwhelm the defenses. They encounter threats at various distances, forcing them to adapt tactics and expend countermeasures throughout their mission.

Challenges for CVBG Fighters:

• Limited Maneuverability: Being forced to operate further out and potentially change course due to threats reduces the fighters' ability to maneuver freely and carry out precise attacks.

• Resource Depletion: Evading LRADs and layered defenses might require CVBG fighters to expend countermeasures like chaff and flares, reducing their effectiveness later in the mission.

• Increased Risk: The layered air defense exposes CVBG fighters to missile threats at multiple stages, raising the risk of losses.

Important Considerations:

• System Integration: The effectiveness of this multi-layered approach depends on strong communication and integration between different air defense systems and fighter jets.

• Intelligence and Early Warning: Accurate intelligence about the CVBG's location and intentions is crucial for India to activate the appropriate defense layers at the right time.

Overall Impact:

While not impenetrable, India's multi-layered air defense with LRADs as the outer layer significantly complicates operations for Chinese CVBG fighters. It forces them to expend resources, reduces their effectiveness, and increases the risk of losses. This ultimately deters aggressive actions and compels China to carefully consider the costs of operating a carrier group near Indian territory.

Beyond Hardware: Strategy and Alliances

Military hardware is just one piece of the puzzle. India's success hinges on:

• Effective intelligence gathering: Pinpointing the location and capabilities of China's CSGs is vital for planning counter-strikes.

• Seamless coordination: Air, surface, and sub-surface assets need to work together flawlessly to overwhelm a CSG's defenses.

• Strategic alliances: India's partnerships with the US, Japan, and Australia (the Quad) can provide crucial support in deterring Chinese aggression.

The Evolving Chessboard

While India's current arsenal can pose a significant challenge, a long-term solution requires:

• Modernization: India needs to continuously upgrade its carrier fleet, invest in next-generation fighters, and strengthen its ASW capabilities.

• Indigenous Development: Self-reliance in crucial defense technologies like missiles and aircraft carriers is paramount for long-term strategic autonomy.

Conclusion

Countering China's naval might is a complex challenge. India's current arsenal offers options, but long-term strategic thinking and continuous modernization are essential. By leveraging its asymmetric advantages, forging strong alliances, and prioritizing indigenous development, India can ensure a credible deterrent in the Indo-Pacific.

In Last ,Indian Armed Forces Know Better Than Us , How to Deal With China and it's Navel War Groups.