Estonia Eyes Advanced Air Defense System to Counter Russian Missile Threat

Estonia is preparing to make one of its largest-ever defense purchases—an estimated €1 billion ($1.1 billion) long-range air defense system—in response to the growing threat of Russian ballistic missiles stationed just across its eastern border. With its small size and geographic proximity to Russia, Estonia has always been wary of potential aggression, but the war in Ukraine has heightened its sense of urgency and pushed Tallinn to act swiftly to bolster its defenses.

This major procurement is aimed at acquiring a system capable of intercepting ballistic missiles—something that current systems in the country cannot do. According to Estonia’s Center for Defense Investments (RKIK), the country is now considering three advanced options: the Israeli David’s Sling, the U.S.-made Patriot, and the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system. Each of these platforms offers high-altitude, long-range interception capabilities, including defense against ballistic missile threats.

This new push comes on the heels of Estonia’s recent acquisition of the German-made IRIS-T Surface Launched Medium-range (SLM) air defense system. In 2023, Estonia signed a deal worth €400 million ($439 million) to procure three IRIS-T SLM batteries, including radars and command-and-control infrastructure. The first deliveries of that system are expected by the end of 2025. While highly effective against aircraft and cruise missiles, the IRIS-T SLM’s range of 40 kilometers (25 miles) is insufficient to protect against high-speed ballistic threats.

Estonian officials have acknowledged this gap in capability. “We are going to procure long-range air defense, with capabilities against ballistic missiles,” said Mati Tikerpuu, a senior defense official at RKIK. According to him, the aim is to secure a system that can intercept incoming threats up to 100 kilometers (62 miles) away, at altitudes of 20 kilometers (12 miles).

The threat Estonia faces is not hypothetical. Russia’s 9K720 Iskander-M, a short-range ballistic missile with a range of 500 kilometers and speeds of up to 8,000 kilometers per hour, is already deployed in areas like Kaliningrad and western Russia—well within range of Estonia’s cities and critical infrastructure.

Interestingly, Estonia has ruled out the Israeli Arrow 3 missile system, which is designed for exoatmospheric interception (outside the Earth’s atmosphere). Tikerpuu explained that because Russia is so close, its missiles would be launched from relatively short distances, making a high-altitude, long-range interception system like Arrow 3 less practical for Estonia’s needs.

The three options under consideration each have unique strengths. The David’s Sling is designed to intercept medium- to long-range rockets and missiles and is already part of Israel’s multi-layered missile defense. The Patriot system, widely used across NATO, is battle-tested and offers flexibility with various missile types. The SAMP/T, meanwhile, is Europe’s answer to integrated air and missile defense, developed by France and Italy with a strong focus on interoperability and mobility.

While talks are ongoing and no final contract has been signed, Estonia has already initiated early conversations with the manufacturers. The next steps will involve detailed negotiations over system specifications, delivery timelines, pricing, and quantities. Given the scale and complexity of the procurement, the final deal could run into the billions of euros.

This planned investment underscores Estonia’s broader strategic shift: moving from basic deterrence to building a credible and layered air defense shield. In the current European security environment, smaller NATO nations like Estonia are realizing that survival may depend on the ability to stop incoming missiles within seconds—and decisions made now could define the country’s security posture for decades.