'Disease X' Could be 20 Times Deadlier Than COVID-19 ,What is it And Why Scientists are Worried About its Spread?

Science News ,World :- While the Covid-19 pandemic appears to be waning, healthcare experts are now turning their attention to an imminent threat known as Disease X. Dame Kate Bingham, former chair of the UK's Vaccine Taskforce, warns that the next pandemic could claim up to 50 million lives, surpassing the lethality of Covid-19. The World Health Organization (WHO) has coined the term Disease X for this potential global health crisis, emphasizing its severity, which Bingham suggests could be 20 times deadlier than the current coronavirus.

In an interview with the Daily Mail, Bingham urges the world to prepare for mass vaccination campaigns, anticipating a virus with the infectiousness of measles coupled with the fatality rate of Ebola. She emphasizes that Disease X might already be in the early stages of replication, underscoring the urgency for global readiness. ('Disease X' likely to be 20 times deadlier than Covid-19, says expert. What is it?)

According to Bingham, despite scientists identifying 25 virus families with thousands of individual viruses, there remain millions of undiscovered viruses, as reported by the Daily Mail.

"While Covid-19 and its variants continue to impact recurring health issues, healthcare professionals are bracing for the potential emergence of Disease X, a virus with the potential devastation comparable to the Spanish Flu," warns Dr. Neha Rastogi, Consultant in Infectious Disease at Fortis Memorial Research Institute, Gurugram, citing WHO's definition of Disease X as a pathogen that can cause a large-scale, serious pandemic.

What is Disease X?

Disease X is the name given by scientists and the World Health Organization to an unknown pathogen that could emerge in future and cause a serious international epidemic or pandemic. In February 2018, Disease X was included in the WHO’s updated Blueprint list of diseases for which investing in research and development should be an international priority. It is also a priority for CEPI’s research and development investments.

Does Disease X really exist? And could Disease X kill you?

Disease X itself is a theoretical construct and does not currently exist, the underlying concept highlights a tangible and escalating danger to human health. The latest manifestation of Disease X is the SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. The lack of adequate preparation led to the rapid global spread of COVID-19, resulting in millions of fatalities. However, the development and widespread distribution of safe and effective vaccines have played a crucial role in mitigating the impact of COVID-19, saving an estimated 20 million lives within the first year of their deployment. This underscores the imperative for enhanced global readiness to confront emerging health threats and underscores the need for proactive measures to safeguard against potential future Disease X scenarios.

Will Disease X happen? And when is Disease X coming?

The uncertainty surrounding the next potential pandemic makes it challenging to pinpoint its origin or timeline. What is undeniable, however, is that a Disease X looms in the future, poised to jump from animals to humans and trigger a widespread outbreak. Recent historical instances illustrate a rising trend in the frequency of pathogenic outbreaks capable of causing severe illness and fatalities. The 21st century has witnessed the emergence of SARS-CoV-1, MERS, Zika, and various other novel and resurging viral diseases.

A study published in 2022 revealed that the likelihood of a pandemic comparable to the impact of COVID-19 occurring in any given year is approximately 1 in 50. This translates to a lifetime probability of around 38 percent for individuals reading this to experience a pandemic akin to COVID-19. Regrettably, environmental changes significantly contribute to the escalating risk of such occurrences.

Will Disease X cause the next pandemic?

While it’s likely that the next pandemic threat could emerge as a novel Disease X, there’s also a risk of already known pathogens mutating and/or re-emerging and then spreading into international disease epidemics—such as has happened with Chikungunya virus—or pandemics.

Where will the next Disease X come from?

The origin of the next Disease X remains a subject of concern, as new and unfamiliar diseases continually surface worldwide, frequently originating from animals like bats and subsequently affecting humans. Researchers posit that the probable source of the next Disease X could be a novel virus arising from approximately 25 viral families known for their ability to induce illnesses in humans.

How can we prepare for Disease X if it doesn’t exist yet?

Even though we cannot accurately anticipate its characteristics or pinpoint when it might arise, proactive preparation for Disease X is possible. By comprehensively studying the approximately 25 viral families deemed most prone to hosting a novel Disease X, researchers can proactively develop advanced medical defenses. This includes the rapid development of vaccines and treatments that can be easily adjusted to combat a newly emerging viral disease.