2nd India China War Happen in 2025 -2030 : UK RUSI Analytics

Defense News ,India :- Geopolitical analysts have forewarned of an impending second India-China conflict in the Himalayas, speculating that the outbreak may occur between 2025 and 2030.

Contrary to this perspective, the former Chief of the Indian Army holds a different viewpoint. He contends that since the Galwan clash in 2020, China recognizes that the new India is not easily intimidated and is unlikely to risk an escalation before resolving the Taiwan issue.

China's recent move involves a 7.2 percent increase in defense spending in 2024, signaling a steady progression towards its objective of reclaiming Taiwan and integrating it with the Chinese mainland. A Reuters-reviewed official work report disclosed China's firm stance against separatist activities promoting 'Taiwan independence' and external interference, omitting the reference to "peaceful reunification" and emphasizing determination in advancing the cause of China's reunification.

In the midst of these developments, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) UK featured a commentary titled "War Clouds over the Indian Horizon?" authored by Samir Tata, the founder and President of International Political Risk Analytics. Tata's prediction ominously suggests that the second China-India War is most likely to unfold in Eastern Ladakh, situated in India's far northwest region, sometime within the period of 2025 to 2030.

The argument posits that China's assessment of Eastern Ladakh, a region belonging to India, from the standpoint of energy security may drive both China and India towards a potential war.

According to the author, the strategic significance of Eastern Ladakh lies in its role as the sole pathway for a hostile power to launch an invasion on Kashgar, a crucial energy hub in China's far Western province of Xinjiang. Emphasizing the centrality of this area to China's energy security, the author points to the planned land-based pipeline that aims to connect Iran's oil and gas fields to Kashgar, traversing through Pakistan via the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Retired General MM Naravane, the former chief of the Indian Army, aligns with this perspective, acknowledging that Eastern Ladakh and the Karakoram Pass are integral to China's long-term strategy, particularly in relation to the CPEC project. General Naravane underscores the potential significance of disrupting China's connectivity in CPEC, Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir, or Tibet, suggesting a substantial shift since the 1962 Sino-Indian War.

In 1962, India and China engaged in a brief and violent conflict that saw Indian forces overwhelmed, caught off guard by the sudden escalation of hostilities. The current analysis suggests that the evolving dynamics in the region, especially concerning energy security, could be a driving force behind heightened tensions and the potential for conflict between the two nations.

General Naravane, who served as the Indian Army Chief during the 2020 Galwan Clash, had planned to release his memoir, 'Four Stars of Destiny,' in 2024. However, the anticipated release has been delayed. Media reports had previously detailed the unprecedented events of the skirmish that unfolded on the night of June 15, 2020, resulting in the loss of 20 Indian soldiers, while the casualties on the Chinese side remain undisclosed.

In his memoir, General Naravane highlights the Galwan clash as a pivotal moment in the strained relationship between India and China, marked by a long-standing, un-demarcated border. He emphasizes that following the Galwan clashes, India abandoned its diffidence, opting to explicitly refer to China by name rather than using euphemisms.

Asserting the strength of the Indian Armed Forces, General Naravane dismisses claims of power asymmetry, particularly in mountain warfare. He notes that the 2020 action was followed by a significant induction of troops in Eastern Ladakh, challenging any notion of military imbalance.

The Galwan Valley clash marked a historic event as China's People's Liberation Army suffered "fatal casualties" for the first time in over two decades. The aftermath of the clashes prompted both sides to enhance their combat readiness along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

In response to the Chinese occupation of over 80 tents on their side in 2020, the Indian Armed Forces swiftly mobilized their entire transport fleet, including C-130s and C-17s. They successfully airlifted 68,000 troops, 330 infantry vehicles, and over 90 tanks and artillery guns, outmaneuvering China.

General Naravane concludes that the situation in Galwan remains stalemated, with a dense presence of troops from both the Army and the Air Force. He highlights the implementation of robust surveillance systems, eliminating the possibility of being taken by surprise in the region.

Lot On China’s Plate

Renowned military leader General Naravane's perspectives find resonance in the views expressed by Sana Hashmi, a distinguished scholar and policy expert based in Taiwan. Hashmi, known for her authoritative work 'China’s Approach Towards Territorial Disputes: Lessons and Prospects,' sheds light on the critical challenges confronting China, particularly its economic struggles and declining foreign direct investment (FDI). The prevailing unease among foreign companies operating in China could worsen with the prospect of a conflict.

Understanding China's military strategies requires a deeper insight into its future aspirations. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has set a bold target of achieving "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" by 2049. This comprehensive vision encompasses the expansion of national power, governance system enhancements, and a revision of the international order.

Experts argue that achieving these national rejuvenation plans by 2049 is unlikely to be a peaceful endeavor. The CCP's leadership considers the unification with Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau as fundamental objectives. This vision extends to the Himalayan regions in India, Nepal, and Bhutan, reflecting China's overarching goals. The entire Indo-China Peninsula holds paramount significance for China, with the tip controlling strategic chokepoints like the Malacca Strait and the potential Thai Canal—both pivotal to the Chinese economy and susceptible to disruption in case of a blockade.

General Naravane emphasizes the top priority that Taiwan holds in China's contentious issues. He notes that any shift in Beijing's priority order is improbable, particularly if a conflict with India were to arise. In such a scenario, Taiwan would likely be relegated from consideration, underscoring the intricacies and interconnections of China's geopolitical strategies.